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Acting on the exit from fossil fuels at COP28 seems almost impossible. Yet, nothing else will allow us to limit the temperature rise to a bearable level, argues Katheline Schubert.
Reducing COP28 to the evident conflict of interest of its president, Sultan Al Jaber, would be a mistake. Previous COPs did not take place in one of the major oil-producing countries, and yet, few notable advances were recorded on the issue of phasing out fossil fuels.
States and oil and gas companies have fiercely lobbied to slow down this exit, and massive disinformation campaigns have strengthened climate-skeptic views. Consumer countries have been slow to initiate necessary transformations.
While scientific studies suggest leaving a significant portion of proven fossil fuel reserves in the ground to have a chance of limiting temperature increase to 1.5 °C (Nature, 2021), the world is not heading in that direction.
The fate of coal (the highest CO2 emitter among fossil fuels) is likely already sealed in the United States and Europe. Production and consumption have shifted to Asia, home to the three largest coal producers: China, India, and Indonesia.
Regarding oil and gas, not only is the supply not decreasing, but it is increasing. Almost all hydrocarbon sector companies continue to invest massively in exploration to find new reserves, risking these reserves becoming stranded assets—never exploited. How can this be explained?
Lack of Faith in Ambitious Climate Policies: Companies and oil-producing states do not believe that sufficiently ambitious climate policies will be implemented to prompt an energy transition. They bet on a demand that will not weaken.
Green Paradox: Anticipating ambitious climate policies, oil and gas companies want to extract and sell as much as possible before it's too late.
Carbon Capture and Storage: An increasingly plausible explanation is that these actors are counting on carbon capture and storage at the source or directly from the air. According to IPCC scenarios, this option is necessary to offset emissions impossible to eliminate in aviation and agriculture, in particular.
These strategies are not exclusive to OPEC members. Since 2017, the United States has been the world's largest producer of oil and gas, and they are increasing production. The UK has just approved new drilling in the North Sea.
As for demand, it is not decreasing. Climate policies are too timid. Carbon taxation at the appropriate level (around €200 per ton of CO2) faces opposition from populations, and governments step back whenever they get the chance (the UK postponed the ban on the sale of internal combustion engine cars, Germany delayed the end of gas boilers). However, climate policy must be predictable and stable.
Confirming the exit from fossil fuels at COP28 seems almost impossible. Yet, as all stakeholders know, nothing else will allow us to limit the temperature rise to a bearable level.